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The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu.
Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).
Contents |
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Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[1][2] |
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| Enrolled Voters | 3,582,232 | |||||
| Votes Cast | 3,329,865 | Turnout | 92.96 | +0.23 | ||
| Informal Votes | 165,134 | Informal | 4.96 | +0.40 | ||
| Summary of votes by party | ||||||
| Party | Primary Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
| Liberal | 1,203,654 | 38.03 | +3.59 | 35 | +12 | |
| Labor | 1,147,348 | 36.25 | –6.81 | 43 | –12 | |
| Greens | 354,697 | 11.21 | +1.17 | 0 | ±0 | |
| National | 213,492 | 6.75 | +1.58 | 10 | +1 | |
| Family First | 72,354 | 2.29 | –2.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Country Alliance | 42,938 | 1.36 | +1.36 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Democratic Labor | 28,176 | 0.89 | +0.89 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Sex Party | 17,252 | 0.55 | +0.55 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Socialist Alliance | 1,787 | 0.06 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Christian Democrats | 636 | 0.02 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Other | 82,395 | 2.60 | +0.31 | 0 | –1 | |
| Total | 3,164,729 | 88 | ||||
| Two-Party Preferred | ||||||
| Coalition | 1,633,312 | 51.58 | +5.96 | |||
| Labor | 1,533,225 | 48.42 | –5.96 | |||
The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010.[3] Daniel Andrews replaced Brumby as Labor leader on 3 December.[4]
|
Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[1] |
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| Enrolled Voters | 3,582,232 | |||||
| Votes Cast | 3,328,861 | Turnout | 92.93 | +0.20 | ||
| Informal Votes | 112,475 | Informal | 3.37 | -0.91 | ||
| Summary of votes by party | ||||||
| Party | Primary Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
| Labor | 1,137,461 | 35.36 | -6.09 | 16 | –3 | |
| Liberal (metropolitan) | 792,702 | 24.65 | +3.35 | 12 | +3 | |
| Liberal/National | 595,330 | 18.51 | +0.83 | |||
| Liberal (country) | 6 | ± 0 | ||||
| National | 3 | +1 | ||||
| Greens | 386,172 | 12.01 | +1.43 | 3 | ±0 | |
| Family First | 91,982 | 2.86 | -0.99 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Democratic Labor | 75,080 | 2.33 | +0.36 | 0 | -1 | |
| Sex Party | 61,542 | 1.91 | +1.91 | 0 | ± 0 | |
| Country Alliance | 53,149 | 1.65 | +1.20 | 0 | ± 0 | |
| Christian Democrats | 12,322 | 0.38 | +0.18 | 0 | ± 0 | |
| Other | 10,646 | 0.33 | 0 | ± 0 | ||
| Total | 3,216,386 | 40 | ||||
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.[5][6]
| Seat | Pre-2010 | Swing | Post-2010 | ||||||
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bentleigh | Labor | Rob Hudson | 6.3 | -7.1 | 0.8 | Elizabeth Miller | Liberal | ||
| Burwood | Labor | Bob Stensholt | 3.7 | -9.6 | 5.9 | Graham Watt | Liberal | ||
| Carrum | Labor | Jenny Lindell | 6.7 | -8.7 | 2.0 | Donna Bauer | Liberal | ||
| Forest Hill | Labor | Kirstie Marshall | 0.8 | -3.9 | 3.2 | Neil Angus | Liberal | ||
| Frankston | Labor | Alistair Harkness | 3.2 | -5.3 | 2.1 | Geoff Shaw | Liberal | ||
| Gembrook | Labor | Tammy Lobato | 0.7 | -7.5 | 6.8 | Brad Battin | Liberal | ||
| Gippsland East ¶ | Independent | Craig Ingram | 9.1 | -21.1 | 12.0 | Tim Bull | National | ||
| Mitcham | Labor | Tony Robinson | 2.0 | -4.7 | 2.8 | Dee Ryall | Liberal | ||
| Mordialloc | Labor | Janice Munt | 3.5 | -5.6 | 2.1 | Lorraine Wreford | Liberal | ||
| Mount Waverley | Labor | Maxine Morand | 0.3 | -7.8 | 7.4 | Michael Gidley | Liberal | ||
| Prahran | Labor | Tony Lupton | 3.6 | -7.8 | 4.3 | Clem Newton-Brown | Liberal | ||
| Seymour | Labor | Ben Hardman | 6.7 | -7.9 | 1.2 | Cindy McLeish | Liberal | ||
| South Barwon | Labor | Michael Crutchfield | 4.1 | -6.2 | 3.9 | Andrew Katos | Liberal | ||
¶ In 2006, the final Gippsland East 2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals
The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition. They had not done so since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000.[7] The Liberal Party departed from tradition and preferenced the Greens last instead of above Labor. Without Liberal preferences, the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor were decreased.[8]
Labor led by Steve Bracks came to power as a minority government at the 1999 election, defeating the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats up for election, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-elections were held; in Bracks' seat of Williamstown and former Deputy Premier John Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.[9]
Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[10]
Key dates for the election were:[11]
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.
| Labor Brumby |
Liberal Baillieu |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2010 election | – | – |
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 48% | 38% |
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 50% | 36% |
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 49% | 31% |
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2010 | 47% | 31% |
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 49% | 29% |
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 51% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 54% | 26% |
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 54% | 21% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 54% | 22% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 49% | 27% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 45% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 48% | 26% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 51% | 28% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 49% | 23% |
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 48% | 25% |
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 22% |
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 51% | 25% |
| 2006 election | – | – |
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 53%1 | 30% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. 1 Steve Bracks. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
||
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||||
| 2010 election | 36.3% | 38.1% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 48.4% | 51.6% | |||
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 48.9% | 51.1% | |||
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 37% | 39% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 38% | 32% | 4% | 17% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| May – Jun 2010 | 34% | 36% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 37% | 38% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 41% | 32% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 43% | 32% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 43% | 35% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 42% | 34% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 46% | 31% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 45% | 34% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 37% | 37% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 41% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 44% | 33% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 43% | 34% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 31% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 49% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 2006 election | 43.1% | 34.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 54.4% | 45.6% | |||
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
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Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.[12]
| Dailies | Sundays | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Newspaper | Endorsement | |||
| The Age | Labor[13] | The Sunday Age | Labor[14] | |||
| The Australian | Labor[15] | The Weekend Australian | ||||
| The Australian Financial Review | Labor[16] | |||||
| The Herald Sun | Labor[17] | Sunday Herald Sun | Labor[18] | |||
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